December 16, 2018 – For home and condominium owners chained to an adjustable rate mortgage, a year ago would have been a good time to refinance into a loan with a fixed interest rate.

Unfortunately, the refinance ticket window has closed and the train has left the station.

According to ATTOM Data Solutions, residential refinance mortgage originations on one-to-four-unit properties nationwide declined in the third quarter of 2018 to 681,455 loans, down 15 percent from the previous quarter and down 21 percent from a year ago – the lowest level since early 2000. Refinance dollar volume in the United States in the third quarter represented an estimated $175.1 billion, a decline of 14 percent from the previous quarter and down 21 percent from a year ago – the lowest level since early 2014.

In December 2017, The Home Front strongly advised borrowers paying off an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) to refinance because it was not a good idea to hang on to a variable rate loan with interest rates on the rise and likely to go higher in 2018.

Rates on one-year adjustable-rate mortgages are modified annually based on short-term interest rates that are typically based on U.S. Treasury indexes.

(Above) 1-year Treasury Constant Maturity Rates (percent) since January 2014. Source: Freddie Mac. (Click on image to view larger version.)

One-year ARM rates have been on a roller coaster ride over the past decade and a half. For example, in January 2002, the one-year ARM rate average was 5.18 percent, reported Freddie Mac. By January 2011 the average fell to 3.25 percent. By December 20, 2012, the average one-year ARM rate hit 2.52 percent, and by January 2015, it slid to a rock bottom 2.38 percent. Since then, it has started trending upward.

In addition, over the past decade lenders also began offering the more popular five-year Treasury indexed hybrid ARM.

“Homeowners who financed their home or condominium purchase several years ago with a one-year ARM especially should be shopping now to refinance into the haven of a fixed-rate loan,” advised The Home Front in late 2017.

If a home or condo owner’s one-year ARM rate currently is 4.75 percent, the three quarter-point Federal Reserve Board hikes put in place in 2018 will push the loan rate to 5.75 percent at adjustment time. When the lender adjusts the ARM loan interest rate in early 2019, it likely will boost the typical mortgage payment by hundreds of dollars. With interest rates rising, the one-year Treasury Constant Maturity index hit 2.70 percent on December 7, 2018, up from 1.67 percent on December 7, 2017. This Treasury index has steadily increased to 0.83 percent in December 2016 from 0.67 percent in December 2015. Back in December 2014, the index was as low as 0.15 percent.

The Fed has signaled it wants to gradually raise its funds interest rate in the coming months to three percent or slightly higher. The funds rate, which the Fed charges banks for loans, currently is in a range of 2 to 2.5 percent. Another rate increase is expected at the Fed’s next meeting, scheduled for December 19.

If a borrower currently holds an older one-year ARM mortgage that is tied to the one-year Treasury index, it likely carries a lender profit margin of 3.25 percent. This means that a one-year ARM loan with a current 4.75 percent mortgage rate would jump to 5.95 percent when the December 7, 2018, margin kicks in at 2.70 percent.

For one homeowner, a 1.25 percent increase sent monthly payments up $80

Earlier this month, the owner of a two-bedroom, two-bath condominium was shocked when she received a notice from her lender that the interest rate on her mortgage would increase to 6 percent from 4.75 percent.

The increase happened because the Treasury index rose to 2.74 percent on November 7, 2018, sparking the January 1, 2019, rate increase. So, effective February 1, 2019, the condo owner’s monthly payment will increase $80 a month from $1,468 to $1,538.

What’s worse is the interest share of the payment will jump to $735 from $586 – an interest gain of 25 percent, or $149 a month. Principal pay-down will shrink 11 percent – or $51 a month – to $458 from $509.

The bank’s terse statement said, “We calculate your interest rate by taking a published index rate and adding a certain number of percentage points, called the margin. Under your loan agreement is the weekly average of one-year Treasury Constant Maturity and your margin is 3.25 percent.”

The bank statement also said under the ARM loan agreement, the borrower’s interest rate cannot go higher than a whopping 11.25 percent over the life of the loan and the rate cannot change each year by more than two percent.

The condo owner’s older ARM loan was originated in 2002 with the interest rate set at a fixed level for seven years and payments amortized on a 30-year paydown schedule.

(Right) Street in Humboldt Park neighborhood west of the Loop. (Above) 6166 North Sheridan Road in East Rogers Park.

However, during the financial crisis of the Great Recession, the bank that made the original mortgage failed, was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and sold to another lender. In 2008, the second lender also failed and was taken over by the FDIC. The condo owner’s loan was sold to yet a third lender, a major national bank.

Following the original mortgage documents, the seven-year fixed feature ended in 2010 and the third bank converted the ARM loan to a one-year annual rate adjustment schedule. Based on the one-year Treasury index, the interest rate initially was boosted from 3.75 to 4.75 percent in 2018 and soon will be raised to six percent in early 2019.

Earlier, the self-employed condo owner vainly attempted to refinance the ARM loan into a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage through the federal government’s Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP), but she was rejected.

Forecasts say that the Federal Reserve Board is scheduled to raise its short-term rate three more times in 2019. If this happens, the condo owner could see her ARM loan rate jump to seven percent by December 2019, analysts say.

Obviously, home loan borrowers who sign up for an ARM loan hope the worst-case scenario – a hike to 11.25 percent – never happens. However, one must always remember banks and mortgage companies are in business to make a profit.

Here’s how the late Herbert L. Benson, Jr., entrepreneur and South Carolina real estate developer, eloquently summed the bank profit concept in the pages of Escaping Condo Jail, the survival guide for condo living...

“Your bank is not a synagogue, temple, or church. It is not a charitable institution. You owe it no loyalty. Banks today have some 300 fees and charges that they put on the innocent,” noted Benson (left). “They still use their same old rules: You can always borrow money if you can prove to them that you don’t need it. And, deposit $10,000 and they will be glad to lend you $5,000.”

Advised Benson, “Shop around, read the small print, and then decide what is best for you.”