(Above) Pedestrians share the DuSable Bridge along Michigan Avenue with agents from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and U.S. Customs and Border Protection as the agents walked around the Loop and River North on September 28, 2025 (Ashlee Rezin/Chicago Sun-Times via AP).

By Don DeBat

Oct. 29, 2025 – Veteran downtown and North Side Chicago real estate brokers are starting to worry about the impact of armed National Guard troops and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents marching through the streets in front of their autumn property showings.

Residential brokers in upscale neighborhoods such as Gold Coast, Lincoln Park, and Old Town, are already struggling through a slow sales year mostly because of a listing shortage and home loan interest rates currently at 6.2 percent.

Meanwhile, downtown retail street crime also is adding to the chaos with gangbangers smashing boutique shop windows and grabbing armloads of Rolex watches and Gucci purses.

“Political and economic uncertainty along with perceived or actual crime rates are also keeping sellers on the sidelines,” observed broker John Irwin (left), co-author of the October Market Analysis for Chicago’s North Side with Jackie Lafferty of Baird & Warner.

“With the current turmoil at the national and local levels [and as] events continue to unfold, this makes it impossible to predict with certainty how our local real estate business will be affected,” said Irwin.

Irwin also noted that many homeowners are still reluctant to let go of their current rock-bottom 2-percent-plus interest loans on existing homes.

Gold Coast struggling

To gain fluff-free insight into the impact of the national governmental action – sparked by President Donald Trump – on the North Side housing market, The Home Front spoke exclusively and candidly with veteran Baird & Warner broker James Kinney, generally viewed as the dean of downtown and Near North Side brokerages.

“The downtown and Gold Coast market is struggling,” said Kinney (right), who specializes in marketing vintage mansions, East Lake Shore Drive co-operative apartments, and luxury condominiums.

Typically, there are 75 vintage luxury properties on the market on the Gold Coast. Today, there are only about 20 such listings, Kinney disclosed.

Kinney cited an example of a current Gold Coast property, sold in 2007 for $5 million, that currently is listed for a reduced price of $2.4 million.

“A motivated buyer likely would invest $2 million to $3 million in upgrades, so the value is there,” he said. “However, the cost of redoing the unit will put the price above current market levels. You would have to fall in love with the property to buy it.”

The Gold Coast and Near North Side neighborhoods were beginning to build sales momentum and climb out of the slow 2025 market, according to Kinney. “It’s not a bad year, compared with a few years ago,” he said, though recently, “part of the problem is the clash of ideas on the national political level and the local level.”

Though crime statistics now are better than a few years ago, noted Kinney, “what I’m seeing is would-be luxury home buyers who were deterred, continue to be deterred.”

“Former North Shore residents, who sold their homes to move to the Gold Coast, say their suburban friends fear street crime and auto hijackings, and won’t visit them,” Kinney said.

Potential downtown home and condo buyers also worry about the chaos of masked ICE agents and armed National Guard troops downtown on Wacker Drive and Michigan Avenue. “A turning point would be if we have National Guard run-ins with the general public,” Kinney noted.

(Right) Federal agents along Wacker Drive on September 28. Ashlee Rezin/Chicago Sun-Times via AP. (Click on image to view larger version.)

Regarding ICE agents and 500 National Guard troops turning the streets of Chicago into a virtual war zone, off the record, one young Lincoln Park luxury broker said: “Chicagoans are taking it in stride, but I can’t wait for this to end. It is a black eye on Chicago.”

Advice from this veteran newspaper reporter, who witnessed the 1968 race riots after Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated and saw Chicago cops clubbing anti-war protestors in Grant Park during the Democratic National Convention: “Keep your powder dry, your doors locked, and don’t venture outside after dark.”

Low listing inventory continues

In Baird & Warner’s October North Side market analysis, the Irwin-Lafferty team made the following observations on September sales statistics:

• The North Side market is supply-constrained, pushing prices upward. Strength is concentrated in the luxury and mid-market tiers, while Lincoln Park and Lakeview are soft spots.

• Despite historically low inventory levels, home sales volume rose 10.1 percent in September compared with the same month in 2024.

• The sales increase was fueled by the Near North Side, up a hefty 36.2 percent over September 2024, and North Center, where sales statistics rose a modest 5 percent. Sales slumped 4.5 percent in Lincoln Park, and fell 11.4 percent in Lakeview.

• Open house turnouts were strong, and buyer incentives and multiple purchase offers continued to dominate the market.

Mortgage rates ease slightly

On October 23, the benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average was 6.19 percent, down slightly from 6.27 a week earlier, reported the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. A year ago, the 30-year fixed loan average was 6.54 percent.

“Over the last few weeks, mortgage rates have settled in at their lowest level in about a year,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Home buyers are digesting these lower rates and gradually are willing to move forward with buying a home, which is boosting purchase activity.”

Fifteen-year fixed loans averaged 5.44 percent, down from 5.52 percent a week earlier. A year ago, the 15-year fixed loan average was 5.71 percent.

The survey is focused on conventional, conforming, fully amortizing home purchase loans for borrowers who place a down payment of 20 percent, and have excellent credit.